Sportradar maps prediction-market growth while flagging regulatory drag

Sportradar used its Q2 earnings call to detail its push into US prediction markets, building on a multi-year Kalshi partnership announced in June and a Polymarket deal signed the same day as the call. Management cautioned that meaningful revenue from the vertical will not arrive until 2027, citing regulatory ambiguity and slower-than-expected league approvals.

Deals and league coverage

The Kalshi agreement, announced in June, covers official sports data, live odds, fan engagement and customer-acquisition tools, and integrity services across MLB, ATP, NHL, MLS and UFC, with the same services extended to Kalshi's brokers and market makers. Financial terms were not disclosed. Sportradar described it as its first such agreement with a prediction market, mirroring the data and integrity support it provides online sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. The NBA is absent from the deal; Commissioner Adam Silver has said the league is still monitoring prediction markets, and Sportradar declined to comment on league negotiations. CEO Carsten Koerl said the goal is to establish a "trusted, compliant framework for sports innovation" similar to online sports betting.

On the day of the earnings call, Sportradar also signed a multi-year Polymarket deal providing Tennis Data Innovations data to registered US users, covering around 20,000 matches per season including streaming and exclusive event contracts. Koerl said additional prediction-market deals are in the pipeline. Shares jumped 8.8% when the Kalshi deal was announced in June; after the earnings call, the stock closed at $12.91, up fractionally.

Financial outlook

Management said prediction-market revenue is expected to reach "tens of millions" in 2026, with CFO Craig Felenstein noting the vertical had limited impact in Q2 but should accelerate in the second half. The company guided to full-year 2026 revenue growth of 19-21%, or €1.518bn-€1.533bn at current FX rates. SportsContent, Technology & Services revenue rose 9% year-on-year to €64m ($73.9m), helped by prediction-market affiliate spending and sportsbook acquisition campaigns. Citizens analyst Jordan Bender expects that spending to continue as well-capitalised entrants arrive during NHL and NBA seasons, and lifted his EBITDA margin estimate for the coming fiscal year to 25.1% from 23.7% for fiscal 2026.

Felenstein said the Kalshi and Polymarket deals combine fixed and variable fee components, allowing Sportradar to capture upside as markets expand. Koerl pointed to ultra-low-latency feeds and ball-tracking data as differentiators, and said the company will support market participants through services similar to its Managed Trading Services rather than acting as a market maker.

Regulatory and legal context

Koerl acknowledged that revenue realisation was delayed partly because league partners had to approve the new use of data, and he described the US legal and compliance framework as "very fluid." The regulatory backdrop is contested: the CFTC under President Donald Trump has backed prediction markets, reversing a proposed Biden-era ban, while more than a dozen states have active litigation against Kalshi and Polymarket. New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James last week sued Kalshi seeking $36bn in compensatory damages. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, confirmed in December, accused New York of seeking an "unprecedented sudden shutdown" of prediction markets and said the CFTC would defend its jurisdiction. Felenstein said Sportradar will serve clients in jurisdictions where they are allowed to operate.

Short-seller overhang

Sportradar's stock has also been affected by short-seller allegations. In April, shares fell about 20% after Callisto Research and Muddy Waters Research claimed the company serves black and grey markets, including supplying more than 270 providers. Sportradar denied the reports as "factually inaccurate," and Koerl cited a rigorous compliance framework and contractual protections. Citizens maintained its "market outperform" rating but cut its price target from $24 to $20. The stock traded near $12.73 in mid-day trading on Thursday.