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Founded
2017-12-31 in New York, United States
Headquarters
New York City, New York, United States

Kalshi is a New York-based prediction market and the first exchange federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to let people trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, it lets users buy binary 'yes/no' event contracts on politics, economics, sports, weather and culture, and rose to a reported $22 billion valuation by 2026.

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Company History

Kalshi is a New York-based prediction market founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, two entrepreneurs who met while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Mansour previously worked at Goldman Sachs and Lopes Lara at Citadel before the pair set out to build a regulated venue for trading on the outcome of real-world events. The company went through the Y Combinator accelerator in its early days.

Much of Kalshi's early life was spent on regulatory groundwork rather than product growth. The founders spent roughly two years working with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become an approved exchange — at a time when the agency had not designated a new event-contract exchange in over a decade. Kalshi received CFTC approval in November 2020 and launched its first contracts to the public in 2021.

Business Model

Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange (a Designated Contract Market) rather than a traditional sportsbook or gambling site. Its core product is the "event contract," a binary instrument in which traders buy either the "yes" or "no" side of a question such as whether unemployment will rise above a given level. Each contract carries a $1 value, trades between 1 cent and 99 cents to reflect the market-implied probability, and settles at $1 if the underlying outcome occurs.

The company makes money primarily by charging trading and settlement fees on this activity. Customer funds are held in segregated accounts at large custodian banks, and because Kalshi is a regulated exchange, its model is structured around market infrastructure — matching buyers and sellers — rather than acting as the house taking the other side of bets.

Core Products and Markets

Kalshi's markets span politics and elections, economic indicators (such as inflation and Fed decisions), sports, weather, entertainment and corporate events like earnings and mergers. It serves retail traders directly through its mobile app and website, and supports institutional participants through API access and market-maker programs. More recently it has expanded into new instrument types such as perpetual futures and pursued distribution through brokerage partners.

Market Position and Competitors

Kalshi became one of the two dominant names in prediction markets alongside Polymarket, with the category exploding around the 2024 U.S. presidential election when both platforms facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in election trading. Because it is federally regulated and can legally serve U.S. users, Kalshi occupies a category that offshore competitors like Polymarket cannot fully serve domestically. The competitive landscape has intensified, however, with entrants and incumbents such as Robinhood (and partner Susquehanna), CME Group, FanDuel and DraftKings moving into event contracts.

Licensing and Regulation

Kalshi's defining feature — and its biggest ongoing legal battleground — is its regulatory status. After the CFTC voted to prohibit Kalshi's congressional-control election contracts, calling them unlawful "gaming," Kalshi sued; a federal district court ruled in its favor in September 2024, finding the CFTC had exceeded its authority, and appeals courts have since largely sided with Kalshi. The company has separately faced pushback and cease-and-desist actions from state gaming regulators (including Nevada) over its sports-related contracts, keeping the state-versus-CFTC jurisdictional fight central to its story.

Funding and Recent Direction

Kalshi has raised capital across multiple rounds from backers including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Charles Schwab and Henry Kravis, with Y Combinator among its earliest investors. Its valuation escalated dramatically as trading volumes surged: reported at roughly $2 billion in mid-2025, then about $11 billion in a December 2025 round, and around $22 billion following a further $1 billion raise in 2026. The company has continued to broaden its market menu, add brokerage distribution partners, expand internationally (including a Canadian partnership), and is frequently mentioned as a potential IPO candidate.

Key Products

  • Kalshi Exchange (event contracts)

    The core CFTC-regulated exchange where users trade binary 'yes/no' event contracts on real-world outcomes; each $1 contract is priced between 1 and 99 cents to reflect implied probability and settles at $1 if the underlying outcome occurs.

  • Kalshi app and website

    Consumer-facing mobile app and web platform through which retail traders access and trade Kalshi's markets.

  • Political and election markets

    Contracts on political and election outcomes that drove Kalshi's breakout growth during the 2024 U.S. presidential cycle.

  • Economic indicator markets

    Contracts tied to macroeconomic data such as inflation, GDP and Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions.

  • Sports event contracts

    Contracts on sporting outcomes (e.g., NFL, college football and other events) that have fueled recent volume growth but drawn scrutiny from state gaming regulators.

  • Institutional / API access

    API connectivity and market-maker programs supporting institutional participation and liquidity provision on the exchange.

Offices & Headcount

500 employees (approx.)

Key Persons

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