Five Tribes Push for Federal Action Against Prediction Markets, Citing Threats to Tribal Sovereignty

The Inter-Tribal Council of the Five Civilized Tribes (ITC) has formally adopted a resolution urging Congress and federal regulators to impose guardrails on online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The council argues these platforms operate outside established gaming laws and risk eroding the tribal sovereignty that underpins decades of tribal-state gaming compacts.

Sovereignty and the Gaming Compact Framework

Central to the council's position is the claim that prediction markets are “functionally indistinguishable from sports wagering and other forms of gaming,” in the words of Matthew Morgan, chairman of the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association. Morgan stressed that these platforms circumvent the regulatory infrastructure that tribal casinos and state governments have built. Choctaw Chief Gary Batton echoed that sentiment, stating that “predictive markets undermine tribal sovereignty and the long-standing tribal gaming compacts and laws that have governed tribal gaming for decades.” The resolution calls on lawmakers to close the legal loopholes that allow these markets to expand rapidly without compliance with existing tribal, federal, and state gaming laws.

The push comes months after Oklahoma’s latest attempt to legalize sports betting failed at the state capitol. House Bill 1047, which had support from the tribes, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and major state universities, would have permitted sports betting through existing tribal gaming compacts. Morgan noted that while sports betting remains illegal in Oklahoma, residents are still spending money on prediction markets, resulting in lost tax revenue and exclusivity payments for both the state and tribes. “A lot of economic activity that's going outside of the state… a lot of it's going outside of the country right now to operators that are operating outside of the United States,” he added.

Broader Tribal Priorities

The resolution on prediction markets was one of several approved during the ITC’s general session, which also addressed agricultural policy, federal contracting, and tribal transportation funding. The council applied the same sovereignty lens to its farm bill resolution, urging the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee to incorporate tribal priorities into the Agricultural Act of 2026, including food sovereignty and expanded access to USDA programs. Additionally, the council endorsed Mark Cruz’s nomination to lead the Indian Health Service and issued a proclamation recognizing the National Day of Prayer. The next ITC general session is scheduled for October 7–9, 2026, hosted by the Choctaw Nation.