GRAI issues High Court threat as one prediction market operator defies Irish geoblocking demands

The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) has warned that it may initiate High Court proceedings against a major prediction market platform that has refused to block Irish users, Chief Executive Anne Marie Caulfield confirmed in a radio interview. Caulfield stated that the unnamed operator – described as "one of the largest prediction market operators in the world" – has not complied with the regulator’s request to geoblock Ireland, unlike the “vast majority” of other platforms that have already withdrawn their sites, in some cases within 35 minutes of GRAI intervention. She noted that warning letters have already been issued, and if the operator continues to resist, the regulator can seek a court order to block access to the site and restrict associated funding.

Regulatory limitations and next steps

GRAI, which began licensing online gambling operators in July 2026 under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024, currently lacks the direct authority to order internet service providers (ISPs) to block unlicensed sites. Instead, it relies on legal threats to force compliance. Caulfield revealed that the authority is working with Coimisiún na Meán to obtain 'trusted flagger status', which would enable faster removal of non-compliant websites. The regulator has also conducted almost 30 interventions so far, with most resulting in voluntary geoblocking by the targeted platforms. However, the threat of costly and time-consuming court proceedings remains the primary tool against recalcitrant operators.

International context: France bans Polymarket, Gibraltar charts own course

The Irish warning comes amid a broader European crackdown on prediction markets. France’s gambling regulator, ANJ, has ordered ISPs to block Polymarket – a platform valued at approximately US$15 billion – after reports emerged that French users were still placing bets despite an earlier financial transaction ban. Polymarket is also blacklisted in Italy, and both countries are part of a nine-state European coalition opposed to prediction market operations. Meanwhile, the British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar has taken a divergent approach, recently licensing two prediction market platforms and enacting what it calls the world’s first dedicated regulatory framework for the vertical, creating a clear regulatory divide within Europe.

Broader Irish regulatory developments

Beyond prediction markets, GRAI is rolling out its full regulatory regime on a phased basis. Caulfield highlighted that the authority has begun accepting licence applications and is conducting vetting of operators’ financial standing, data protection, and consumer safeguards. Once fully operational, the regulator will have powers to impose fines of up to €20 million or 10% of turnover, and to suspend or revoke licences. A Social Impact Fund, funded by industry levies, is planned to support prevention, treatment, and research into gambling harm, though its contribution rate and launch date have not yet been set by the Department of Justice. Caulfield confirmed that treatment-related disbursements – for helplines and residential care – are the priority for 2026, with research and education programmes scheduled for 2027.

The regulator also launched its first public health campaign aimed at parents, focusing on identifying signs of underage gambling. This follows research from the ESRI indicating that one in 30 Irish adults experiences problem gambling. On advertising, a forthcoming watershed between 5:30am and 9pm and restrictions on targeted inducements – such as offering free bets to users showing signs of harmful gambling – are expected to be enacted soon, according to Caulfield.

The GRAI’s actions are partly a response to broader concerns about unregulated betting platforms. In May 2026, Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris described prediction markets as a "Wild West" after it emerged that over a million dollars worth of bets had been placed on Polymarket related to the Dublin Central byelection. He instructed gardaí and regulators to examine potential money laundering risks. Caulfield reiterated that prediction markets constitute betting and therefore fall under GRAI’s remit.