Spain Explores Licensed Prediction Betting Amid Regulatory Overhaul

A recent Gaming in Spain webinar has shed light on several key developments in the country's regulated iGaming market, ranging from potential new legislation to the prospect of licensed prediction betting. The session featured Xavi Munoz Bellvehí and Camille Gonzálvez of ECIJA, alongside Josh Hodgson of H2 Gambling Capital, who discussed ongoing regulatory shifts and their market implications.

Spain's gambling regulator, the DGOJ, has launched a public consultation on amendments to the Remote Gambling Act. Proposed measures include stricter player identification to combat tax evasion, a mandatory registry for approved B2B software suppliers to curb illegal gambling, and additional advertising restrictions echoing earlier failed government attempts. These changes would require new primary legislation to take effect.

Just before the webinar, the Spanish government approved a framework for cross-operator deposit limits. A six-month testing period begins on September 25, with full implementation scheduled for March 25, 2027. According to H2 Gambling Capital, this move is expected to slash annual onshore player spend by an estimated €300 million. Market channelization is projected to drop from its current 76% to 74% in 2027, eventually stabilising around 71% from 2028 onward.

Despite the DGOJ recently launching enforcement proceedings against prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, there may be room to offer prediction betting under existing Spanish iGaming rules. Camille Gonzálvez explained that current regulations permit betting on sporting events where players wager against each other, with the operator acting solely as an intermediary. This suggests that prediction markets restricted to sports or horseracing could fit within Spain's current betting framework. While prediction betting is growing rapidly, Gonzálvez noted that its competitive threat to traditional sports betting is often overstated due to how transaction volumes in prediction markets are calculated.

The developments will be further discussed at the upcoming Gaming in Spain Conference on October 15 in Madrid, where DGOJ Director General Mikel Arana has been confirmed as the headline speaker.