South African bookmakers body urges ban on unregulated prediction markets

A trade association representing licensed bookmakers in South Africa has called on regulators to prohibit unlicensed prediction market platforms, citing risks to sports integrity, money laundering vulnerabilities, and lost tax revenue.

The South African Bookmakers Association (SABA) issued a statement on Monday warning of the rapid growth of unregulated prediction market sites in the country. The association pointed to a News24 report from 19 July that claimed over R700,000 ($41,750) had been staked on Polymarket regarding who would become the next mayor of Johannesburg.

Integrity and regulatory concerns

SABA argued that prediction market platforms should be classified and regulated in the same way as betting exchanges, and that operators should not be allowed to bypass gambling laws by labeling their offerings as forecasting tools. The association insisted that a dedicated legal framework can only be developed after a thorough review of existing gambling and financial market legislation, as well as anti-money laundering (AML) requirements and integrity monitoring systems. Until such a framework exists, SABA believes prediction markets should be treated as part of the illegal betting market.

Backing its stance, SABA cited an April study by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) that described prediction markets as a "significant and emerging challenge for sports integrity." The IFHA report warned that such markets allow bettors to profit from underperformance, increasing the risk of manipulation. SABA added that the integrity threat becomes particularly acute when prediction markets extend into areas such as political elections, legislative decisions, public appointments, and financial events. The association noted that South Africa currently lacks the monitoring capacity to detect manipulation, creating what it called a "substantial regulatory blind spot."

Comparison to betting exchanges

SABA had previously raised concerns about the North West Gambling Board’s decision to issue a betting exchange licence, arguing that existing legislation does not expressly authorise such licences. The association sees prediction markets as functionally identical to betting exchanges, since neither accepts betting risk directly but instead facilitates peer-to-peer wagering. SABA questioned whether existing gambling laws permit such activities at all.

Further issues: AML, taxation and consumer protection

Beyond integrity, SABA flagged heightened AML risks because prediction markets handle large volumes of peer-to-peer transactions across multiple jurisdictions. With offshore operators, South African authorities may have little ability to obtain transaction data or enforce compliance, the association warned.

SABA also pointed out that prediction markets are not subject to the same responsible gambling obligations as traditional operators, including self-exclusion systems and advertising restrictions. Additionally, the lack of a dedicated regulatory framework means substantial gambling-related revenue flows out of South Africa without generating tax contributions or supporting local economic development.

In its closing statement, SABA submitted that "until South African Gambling Regulators have enacted a comprehensive legal framework addressing licensing, integrity monitoring, consumer protection, anti-money laundering compliance and taxation," prediction markets should not be authorised to operate and should be treated as exchange-style betting products outside the current legislative scope.