Brazil’s land-based casino prospects: Five experts assess political and electoral obstacles

Brazil’s path to legalising land-based casinos has taken an unconventional route, with online gambling regulated first. The online market has already generated roughly R$37bn in gross gaming revenue in its first full year, attracting some 25 million participants and contributing nearly R$10bn in taxes. Yet the bill to authorise physical casinos, bingo and jogo do bicho remains stuck in the Senate, with an election year looming.

Five leading industry figures shared their assessments of the chances for land-based legalisation over the next few years.

A digital foundation

Alex W. Pariente, founder of Pariente Advisory, sees the online market’s performance as proof of demand. He argues that the main barrier is not economic but political, since the bill has already passed the Chamber and the Senate’s justice committee and enjoys roughly 60% public support. In his view, “legalisation is more a matter of time than of merit.” He also notes that the regulatory infrastructure built for online betting – covering licensing, payments, AML and consumer protection – would serve as a ready-made framework for integrated resorts.

Election-year headwinds

Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the ANJL, points to 2026 as an atypical year dominated by electoral campaigning. He believes that technical discussions have been overtaken by ideological posturing. Once the election concludes, he expects a return to a more favourable climate, with the bill already approved in the Chamber and now requiring only Senate plenary approval. The proposal would also legalise bingo and jogo do bicho, bringing them under state control and taxation.

Magnho José, president of the IJL, highlights that public opinion remains evenly split, making the vote politically sensitive. He warns that conservative and religious blocs, particularly evangelical groups, have historically opposed legalisation. Moreover, the reputation damage from poorly regulated online betting has made the debate harder. José believes a Senate vote could occur after the election but may slip to the next legislature, when two-thirds of the Senate will be renewed. He says approval could be feasible within two years if the igaming sector’s course is corrected and the next Congress is not overly conservative.

A window shaped by the Supreme Court

Rafael Marchetti Marcondes, president of the ABFS and chief legal officer at Draftea, describes the bill as technically mature but politically stalled. The rejection of urgency in December 2025 showed insufficient support in the Senate plenary. He sees voting in 2026 as improbable but believes legalisation is more probable than ever in the coming years, citing a new variable: the Supreme Federal Court will consider in August whether the 1941 ban on games of chance was received by the 1988 Constitution. While the Court would not directly legalise casinos, removing the criminal ban would shift the choice from prohibition versus regulation to a decision between an unregulated decriminalised market or a licensed and taxed one. Marcondes says, “This scenario is likely to speed up the approval of the PL 2.234, rather than slow it down.” He identifies 2027, with the new legislature, as the real window of opportunity, potentially accelerated by the fiscal argument: legalisation could generate more than R$20bn per year in revenue for the Union, states and municipalities.

Brazil as a regional outlier

Alessandro Valente, co-founder of Super Afiliados and responsible for BiS SiGMA South America, notes Brazil’s anomaly in the Americas, where almost every other country has some form of regulated land-based gaming. He expects a more rational debate after the elections, as the country faces urgent challenges in health, security, housing and education. Regulation, he argues, is the most responsible path, offering clear rules, oversight, jobs, tax revenue, tourism investment and sustainable development.