Swedish Online Gambling Channelisation Projected at 84% for 2025, Regulator Reports

The Swedish Gambling Authority, Spelinspektionen, estimates that the channelisation rate for online gambling in the country will reach 84% for 2025. This figure represents a minor decrease from its 2024 assessment and a further slip from the 86% reported in 2023, indicating a continued challenge in steering players towards the regulated market. The latest report, released on June 15, outlines the methodology and findings behind this projection.

Measurement Methodology

Spelinspektionen utilized a dual-pronged approach, first introduced in its 2024 report, to arrive at its channelisation estimates. This involves a comprehensive player survey and an internet-traffic-based turnover calculation. The player survey, conducted by Verian between February and March, polled 6,744 individuals, with 4,175 confirming gambling activity within the last year, asking if their most recent play was with a licensed operator. Separately, the web traffic method converted data from third-party search engine optimization and website traffic analytics for licensed operators into estimated turnover, applying turnover-per-visit metrics provided by the licensees. When considered individually, the player survey suggested a channelisation rate of 89% for the competitive market, while the web traffic analysis indicated 78%. The averaged figure of 84% is presented as the primary benchmark.

The report further broke down channelisation by vertical using the web traffic methodology. Sports betting showed a robust 95% channelisation, whereas online casino lagged significantly at 68%. Overall, licensed operators in Sweden generated a total net turnover of SEK28.2 billion (approximately $3 billion) in 2025. The non-monopoly segment, encompassing iGaming and online betting, accounted for SEK18.7 billion of this total.

Unlicensed Market Landscape

Spelinspektionen identified 2,186 active gambling websites operating without Swedish licenses as of April 30. A large majority of these platforms were online casinos; 976 sites offered exclusively casino games, and an additional 800 provided both online casino and sports betting options. A notable finding concerned skin betting sites, which represented about 42% of visits to unlicensed platforms. Due to their complex nature, often interwoven with non-gambling services like NFTs and cryptocurrency trading, these sites were excluded from the main channelisation calculations.

The player survey also shed light on why some individuals choose unlicensed platforms. Primary motivations included being self-excluded through Sweden’s Spelpaus system, a perception of higher winning probabilities on unregulated sites, and a desire to access games not available within the licensed Swedish market.

Regulatory Efforts and Future Outlook

In September 2025, the Swedish government put forward significant amendments to the Gambling Act, aiming to bolster enforcement against the illegal market. Swedish law applies to online gambling sites if they are deemed “directed” at Swedish players, typically indicated by using local currency or language. Following lobbying efforts from the sector, these proposed changes underwent a review, leading to the enforcement of new regulations. A spokesperson for Spelinspektionen expressed optimism regarding these legislative developments, stating, "We view the investigator’s proposal positively, as it strengthens our ability to work more effectively against unlicensed gambling."

Looking ahead, Spelinspektionen concluded that the actual channelisation rate likely falls between 78% and 89%, depending on the measurement method. The authority plans to continue reporting the 84% averaged figure as its main benchmark and recommends its adoption in government budget proposals. Furthermore, the report emphasized the need for ongoing improvements in measurement techniques, specifically advocating for the inclusion of app traffic data and enhanced methods for identifying unlicensed gambling sites.