Italian Tax Agency Raises 2026 Gambling Revenue Forecast by €807 Million
2026-07-20
Source: SBC News
Italy's tax authority has raised its 2026 gambling revenue forecast by €807 million, driven by new online licences and marginal tax hikes, though recent receipts have dipped. Regulatory reforms, including a unified land-based framework and a replacement for the advertising ban, are due by end of August.
The Agenzia delle Entrate (ADE), Italy’s tax and revenue authority, has finalised the government’s 2025 State Budget accounts and issued a positive assessment of gambling-related tax projections for the 2026 fiscal year.
Non-lottery gambling licences in Italy contributed €6.66 billion in taxes and duties during 2025, equivalent to roughly 1% of the state’s total tax intake of €668 billion. Within that total, income tax generated €346 billion while business taxes (VAT, excise duties) contributed €320 billion. Separately, state concessions for lottery, instant-win games and machine gaming yielded €22.28 billion, which the Ministry of Finance (MEF) allocates to cultural, civic and sports programmes.
Looking ahead, the tax office has revised its 2026 gambling income expectations upward by €807 million as a budget adjustment. The upgrade reflects Italy’s revamped online gambling market, launched in November 2025, under which 52 online concessions have been granted by the ADM and are projected to contribute €365 million in tax income.
Additional revenue is expected from marginal tax increases passed under the 2025 Budget Law. The gross gaming revenue (GGR) tax on online sports betting and virtual betting rose from 24% to 24.5%, while online casino, poker and bingo taxation increased from 25% to 25.5%. Retail sports betting taxation climbed from 20% to 20.5%, and retail virtual betting from 22% to 24.5%. The ADE estimates these combined measures will generate over €500 million in extra annual tax receipts.
Despite these projections, recent data shows a tempering of growth. Between January and April 2026, gambling tax receipts totalled €2.52 billion, a 7.8% decline compared with the same period in 2025. The drop is attributed to reduced tax income from land-based gaming machines and a halving of sports betting concessions following the regulatory overhaul.
The second half of 2026 marks another transformative phase for Italian gambling policy. MEF Deputy Minister Maurizio Leo is expected to conclude negotiations with regional authorities on the final terms of the Reorganisation of Land-based Gambling Decree, which aims to create a unified licensing framework for retail venues. While the new licensing structure and framework have been settled, compensation arrangements with regions over existing concession agreements and lost revenue remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, Sports Minister Andrea Abodi is preparing to present a long-awaited media and advertising bill that would repeal and replace the 2018 Dignity Decree’s blanket ban on gambling advertising. The bill’s progress was delayed by the election of a new Italian Football Federation (FIGC) president, Giovanni Malagò, who supports a proposed 2% levy on football betting revenue to finance grassroots programmes, stadium redevelopment, training facilities and youth development.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has pressed Minister Abodi and the MEF to deliver both the land-based decree and the advertising bill by the end of August, ensuring they can be incorporated into the 2026 Budget. The tight timeline is politically significant, as the government aims to complete the reforms before Italy enters its 2027 election cycle.