Dutch Gambling Tax Hike Fails to Meet Revenue Projections, Joint Report Confirms

2026-06-24

A joint report from the Dutch Ministry of Finance and KSA indicates that the recent gambling tax increases have generated significantly less revenue than initially forecast, attributed to a shrinking tax base and concurrent regulatory changes. The tax hike led to reduced GGR due to new player protection rules, advertising curbs, and market effects, impacting state-owned operators and contributing to land-based venue closures.

A recent collaborative report from the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the gaming regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), has revealed that the country's escalated gambling tax rates have significantly underperformed initial revenue projections. The study highlights that a combination of shifts in regulations and broader market dynamics contributed to the lower-than-anticipated tax intake between 2024 and early 2026, prompting discussions about optimal taxation levels within regulated iGaming sectors.

The tax adjustments were implemented in two stages: an initial rise from 30.5% to 34.2% on January 1, 2025, followed by a further increment to 37.8% on January 1, 2026. Government forecasts projected these increases would boost revenue by approximately €108 million in 2025 and an additional €216 million in 2026. However, actual figures were substantially lower, with only about €2 million extra collected in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026, compared to 2024 levels.

The report identifies a shrinking tax base, calculated on gross gaming revenue (GGR), as the primary reason for this significant discrepancy. It also acknowledges the difficulty in isolating the exact impact of the tax increase from other simultaneous market shifts. Contributing to this reduction in GGR were several factors. New player protection measures introduced in October 2024 established monthly net-deposit caps: €300 for individuals under 24 and €700 for those 24 and older. Additionally, restrictions on advertising and sponsorships, including a ban on TV program sponsorships from July 1, 2024, and on sports team affiliations from July 1, 2025, limited operator reach. Broader market dynamics, such as the natural decline in revenue following the UEFA Euro 2024 event and persistent regulatory scrutiny, also played a role.

While beneficial for consumer welfare, these harm-reduction policies directly diminished the volume of taxable gambling activity. Data from the KSA's 2025 annual report also indicated a decrease in market share for licensed operators.

Impact on State-Owned Operators and Land-Based Venues

The revised tax regime particularly impacted state-controlled gambling entities. Holland Casino experienced a decline in pre-corporate tax profits, estimated at approximately €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026. Similarly, Nederlandse Loterij anticipated reductions in corporate tax, statutory contributions, and overall profits amounting to roughly €16 million in 2025 and about €34 million in 2026. These significant reductions for state operators partially counteracted any extra gambling tax revenue collected.

In the broader land-based sector, visits to casinos and gaming halls saw an approximately 11% year-on-year decrease between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. The number of gaming halls also continued its downward trend, with operators frequently citing the tax hikes as a reason for venue closures or restructuring, as operating margins were squeezed.

Contributions from licensed operators to charitable causes and sports organizations showed minimal change from 2024 to 2025. Donations to charities rose slightly by 1.8%, while funding for sports saw a minor dip of 3.6%. The report concluded that there was no strong evidence that the initial tax increase significantly impacted charitable giving.